Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
