Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
